Trading Expectancy & Risk of Ruin

Understand the edge in your trading system — expectancy per trade, profit factor, and the probability you blow up your account.

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Your Trading Stats

Trade Edge

The performance of your average trade.

%
$
$

Account & Risk

How you size positions — this drives your risk of ruin.

$
%

You can survive 100 consecutive losses.

Load Your Trade Log

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Schwab, Robinhood, E*TRADE, Fidelity, IBKR and more — we auto-detect the P&L column.

Core Expectancy

$0.00
expectancy per trade
R-multiple: N/A
Profit Factor
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Win/Loss Ratio
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Expectancy per Trade
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Sharpe-like Ratio
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Max Consecutive Losses
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Max Drawdown
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Risk of Ruin

The probability your trading system loses enough that recovery becomes impractical. The two models look at ruin from different angles, so they can disagree — that's expected.

Classic Gambler's Ruin

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risk of ruin

Streak Risk

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risk of ruin

Gambler's Ruin estimates your long-run probability of ruin from your per-trade edge (win rate × reward vs loss) and your risk per trade — smaller risk per trade means the account can absorb more losing trades. Streak Risk estimates the chance a single losing streak at your risk-per-trade wipes out the account.